Will NEV's ever catch on with sub/urban drivers in North America?

[MetroMPG]

Here's another NEV company startup, this one based in Michigan:

Will Ferndale electric car maker click or short circuit? (http://www.mlive.com/mbusinessreview/oak/index.ssf?/mbusinessreview/oak/stories/20061214_electriccar.html)


http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.autobloggreen.com/media/2006/12/20061214_electriccar.jpg

Think you'll ever see your neighbour driving one of these?

Like the ZENN car, it's an NEV with a top speed of 25 mph, limited to drive on roads with max 35 mph limit. The market is estimated to be anywhere between 7,000 - 15,000 vehicles per year.

My take: functionally, they're not really much different than bicycles.

Unfortunately, cycling doesn't appeal to the majority of the driving-age population (in North America at least).

NEVs could probably work for a lot of local 2-car (and some of the 1-car) households in the small city I live in.

But I doubt they will ever catch on for urban driving unless...

- their purchase price is significantly less than the cheapest ICE runabouts (they're not - the NEV's I know about are around $9-15k US);

- the price of gas/diesel rises high enough that operating costs favour small EVs over small cars (including battery replacement, which vendors rarely mention when touting their vehicles' "low" operating costs);

- people suddenly decide that vehicle emissions are a key purchasing decision;

- governments enact legislation that tilts the financial balance in favour of EVs (e.g. London, England's congestion charge & parking exemptions).

[The Toecutter]

Will they catch on? Probably not. Some communities have pretty much reached market saturation for NEVs. You see a lot of old people in warmer climates using them, but that's pretty much it.

What will catch on? Highway capable EVs, if and only if someone manages to sell one for an affordable price. The problem is, the big automkaers have the economies of scale but refuse to make EVs. The smaller companies willing to make EVs don't have the economies of scale to mass produce a car, thanks to the regulations lobbied into place by the big automakers in the 1970s to shut out competition. Now days, if you want to build a mass produced car and sell it in the U.S., Australia, Japan, or Europe, it is going to takes hundreds of millions of dollars for design to meet all regulations, and for the machine tools and factory space to build the car in tens of thousands of units per year.

A $20,000 electric midsize sedan that seats 5, does 0-60 mph < 9 seconds, 200+ miles range, 100+ mph top speed, and cost parity with similar gas cars at under $1.50/gallon gas is perfectly possible. However, you need mass production of the cars and components and access to the Ovonic or Panasonic NiMH batteries to do it. With Lithium Ion batteries you could also meet those specs, but with cost parity with similar gas cars around $2.50-3.00/gallon gas. AC Propulsion, Commuter Cars, UEV, and Tesla sadly know this all too well, but there isn't much else they can do for now except build low volume cars that cost $70,000+ as a consequence of being virtually hand-built and using components that have not been produced in large automotive volume.


An NEV costing $9,000-15,000, that can only legally operate on roads with a 35 mph speed limit or below? That isn't going to catch on in any meaningful quantity, when it would take years to recoup that in gas savings(perhaps decades, due to an NEV's extremely limited use).

Forget NEVs. We need real electric cars that are highway capable.

[MetroMPG]

Will they catch on? Probably not. Some communities have pretty much reached market saturation for NEVs. You see a lot of old people in warmer climates using them, but that's pretty much it.

Forget NEVs. We need real electric cars that are highway capable.
Of course, being illegal where I live, I've not seen NEV saturation (I haven't seen any NEV on the road anywhere I've driven. It'll be interesting to see what happens when the laws here change in a couple of years.

I take your points about "real", highway-capable EVs.

But I'd still argue that we should be using the appropriate tool for the job, and in many 2-vehicle households (even if the "primary" vehicle is a highway capable EV), both vehicles don't need to have the same capabilities. For hops to the grocery store or whatever, where the person insists on driving a car, a second, NEV style vehicle makes sense.

"Forget NEVs" is kind of extreme. I don't see it as an either/or issue.

[The Toecutter]

If they'd come down dramatically in price, more people would buy them for the role you outline. But as things are, with a price tag around $9,000, they will usually be avoided in favor of a car that has much more utility. In high volume, NEVs would come down dramatically in price, but as it is, I don't think there will be a lot of people spending $9,000 on a grocery getter.

The economic reality is that for the same price, a much useful car or even a highway capable conversion can be had. Unless prices come way down with higher volume, I don't see NEVs making any real impact on oil consumption, and even with mass production of EVs and their parts, you'd probably have affordable highway capable EVs coming onto the scene. There's also the issue of highway capable EVs often being more energy efficient than NEVs due to aerodynamics. I know of Cushman NEVs that get like 250 Wh/mile at 35 mph(these examples have had their governors tampered with to allow over 25 mph), which is what a midsize car would get at about 60 mph!



I'm not against NEVs, mind you. In fact, one of the places I have in mind for a potential job makes NEVs. I see them as more of a stepping stone, given these companies don't have the economies of scale to do a real car, they are starting with NEVs instead. They may raise the cash to do an actual car 10 or more years from now, but by then the oil crisis could be pretty severe.

[zpiloto]

I have a buddy that used to live outside the Atlanta airport in a community set up for golf carts. He says that I would love it there. Everyone drives these things all over the place. So it works in some places but I think that's the exception and not the rule. I agree with TC $15,000 is just to high for a 25 mph car. I've seriously looked into it but it's just to much money. You could buy a beater for $500 or less and convert it or have someone else do it and have $15,000 (maybe less) tied up in something that would be safer, faster and a lot more range.

I think Americans just won't drive something that small and that slow. There is alway the image that bigger is safer and power is good. As an example: I had some one asking about the Prius the other day and the conversation went like this:
New car?
Yes, It a hybrid and it's really fun to drive.
That's suppose to get good mileage right? How you do coming over?
Yea, I got 85MPG on the way over here.
Is it pretty fast?
No
Huh.

End of conversation
And that I think is the American mind set.:(

[The Toecutter]

Well, you should have mentioned that the Prius performs like a normal car, because it does. 0-60 mph about 10 seconds for the Prius, which about matches typical entry level midsize cars. Many of these gas guzzling SUVs and pickups people drive around in do 0-60 mph in 12 seconds or slower. The Prius certainly has performance in the 'acceptable' range.

Many Americans seem to care about speed without really knowing how fast a typical car is.

[cfg83]

Hello -

25 MPH max? DOA. Might as well get a moped for a grand and go 35 MPH when it's not raining. Same limitation is true of the Zenn cars (otherwise a real cutie) :

http://www.zenncars.com/

CarloSW2

[The Toecutter]

That's why I like the Zapp Xebra. At least you can legally take that one on the highway, even if it may only do 45 mph. This grants it much more practicality and utility than an NEV. The Xebra is also about the same price as a typical NEV. If I had my way with one, in would go a WarP 9", 156V+ pack of AGMs, and Zilla... *evil grin*

[The Toecutter]

You make a point, but I think that depends on whether the person in question is middle class and wealthier, or working class. The latter often buy SUVs not because they really see them as 'cool', but because they can be had in reasonable condiction for dirt cheap given that the used car lots can't get rid of them. These vehicles also have the advantage of a high ground clearance, which reduces the harsh ride and damage caused by the piss poor condition many U.S. roads are in. The former buy what they think it 'cool' because they have the money to obtain 'cool'.

Sadly, it is this the former that determines what cars trickle down to the 2nd hand market for the latter. Many within the latter would LOVE to obtain an EV, but they would never be able to afford a new car unless they incurred upon themselves more dangerous debt.

Make electric cars that burn rubber, or aerodynamically efficient musclecars with huge engines that still return good gas mileage, and both will catch on as 'cool' in no time. Trying to sell an NEV as 'cool' may be difficult, but it is not impossible. After all, the auto industry has managed to sell faux trucks on car platforms as 'cool', when the people driving them look like retards riding around in a short school bus.

[repete86]

If they built a bare-bones EV that could get to 45 mph with a range of 50 miles and keep the costs to a minimum by stripping the car of everything unnecessary to driving, I would probably be first in line to get one. What's a shame is that even though EV's cost more to make due to the lack of the market to support mass-production, so seeing one that will end up being cheaper than an ICE car even without features probably won't occur any time soon.

[cfg83]

Toecutter -

That's why I like the Zapp Xebra. At least you can legally take that one on the highway, even if it may only do 45 mph. This grants it much more practicality and utility than an NEV. The Xebra is also about the same price as a typical NEV. If I had my way with one, in would go a WarP 9", 156V+ pack of AGMs, and Zilla... *evil grin*

Yes, I should have mentioned this caveat. An electric that can sustain 45-50 MPH becomes more practical because I can take it on conventional roads, not just "local town stops". Not ready for freeways, but neither are mopeds.

CarloSW2

[cfg83]

repete86 -

If they built a bare-bones EV that could get to 45 mph with a range of 50 miles and keep the costs to a minimum by stripping the car of everything unnecessary to driving, I would probably be first in line to get one. What's a shame is that even though EV's cost more to make due to the lack of the market to support mass-production, so seeing one that will end up being cheaper than an ICE car even without features probably won't occur any time soon.

When I looked in the rear floor of the Zenn I imagined a row of high-performance "next-gen" batteries that could extend the range. A beefier electric motor and a safety roll cage could just make a car like the Zenn viable.

CarloSW2

[The Toecutter]

If they built a bare-bones EV that could get to 45 mph with a range of 50 miles and keep the costs to a minimum by stripping the car of everything unnecessary to driving, I would probably be first in line to get one. What's a shame is that even though EV's cost more to make due to the lack of the market to support mass-production, so seeing one that will end up being cheaper than an ICE car even without features probably won't occur any time soon.

There's one thing you do have wrong. The market for EVs is huge. It just so happens that the major automakers ignore it because meeting demand for them would shift sales away from vehicles with higher profit margins.

According to a study titled "The Current and Future Market for Electric Vehicles", the market for an electric car with 80 miles range(and an acknowledged reduced range in cold), highway speed capability, and comparable cost to gasoline powered cars was 12-18% of new car sales with a 95% confidence interval. This was just for the state of California, which would amount to over 150,000 electric cars in that state per year.

Today? The technology exists for 200-300 miles range with no range loss in the cold, fast acceleration to match or beat comparable gas cars, ability to have a top speed to match any gas car with proper gearing, and comparable cost to gasoline powered cars.

If the market for an electric car with 80 miles range was 12-18%, one must wonder what would it be with 200+ miles range and greatly increased performance.


There's a large enough market to support mass production. However, those with the economies of scale to do mass production refuse to make EVs. Those small businesses willing to make EVs just don't have the money to mass produce, and meet a huge demand that they certainly know exists.

[MetroMPG]

That's why I like the Zapp Xebra. At least you can legally take that one on the highway, even if it may only do 45 mph.
I also like the specs & price (relative to NEVs). But ... 45 mph as long as you don't have to turn!

The 3-wheeled delta setup is questionable. I don't know firsthand whether the battery pack is placed properly to stabilize these cars.

In the UK, there's a well known ICE powered delta 3 wheeler about the size of the Xebra called the Reliant Robin.

Here's one rolling over at low speed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr8SvdSzs7c

[MetroMPG]

25 MPH max? DOA. Might as well get a moped for a grand and go 35 MPH when it's not raining.
Or too cold 3 months out of the year, or you have to carry stuff, or take a passenger :)

But here's something I have not seen mentioned yet:

All these cars are *electronically* limited to 25 mph. They're all capable of higher speeds.

Anyone with a minimum of mechanical/electrical experience could either : replace the controller with an unrestricted one; install a controller bypass "high speed" circuit.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that if you asked the right person at the dealer, the car might leave the shop with its stock controller tweaked a little bit...

In fact you could probably just plug a laptop into the stock controller and do it yourself.

[cfg83]

MetroMPG -

I also like the specs & price (relative to NEVs). But ... 45 mph as long as you don't have to turn!

The 3-wheeled delta setup is questionable. I don't know firsthand whether the battery pack is placed properly to stabilize these cars.

In the UK, there's a well known ICE powered delta 3 wheeler about the size of the Xebra called the Reliant Robin.

Here's one rolling over at low speed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr8SvdSzs7c

Yeah, the 3 wheels scares me too. Just from a selling POV, people are used to 4 wheels.

In the mini-pickup, the batteries are located just behind the cabin, under the cargo bay. Dead center low COG :

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/1092/img1871uq0.th.jpg (http://img223.imageshack.us/my.php?image=img1871uq0.jpg) http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/1010/img1872sb7.th.jpg (http://img83.imageshack.us/my.php?image=img1872sb7.jpg)

Compromise : How about a set of training wheels up front that don't normally touch the ground? Trading aerodynamics in exchange for safety?

CarloSW2

[The Toecutter]

I also like the specs & price (relative to NEVs). But ... 45 mph as long as you don't have to turn!

Depends on the COG, but I also have questions as to its handling capability.

The 3-wheeled delta setup is questionable. I don't know firsthand whether the battery pack is placed properly to stabilize these cars.

IMO, the 3-wheeled tadpole setup is far superior, from both a stability and an aerodynamics standpoint(unless the vehicle is designed for the absolute extreme in efficiency using laminar flow, in which the delta setup would actually be better, but then practical limitations set in).


But here's something I have not seen mentioned yet:

All these cars are *electronically* limited to 25 mph. They're all capable of higher speeds.

Well, I did hint at this in an earlier post in this topic. :)

I know of Cushman NEVs that get like 250 Wh/mile at 35 mph(these examples have had their governors tampered with to allow over 25 mph), which is what a midsize car would get at about 60 mph!

[MetroMPG]

Well, I did hint at this in an earlier post in this topic.

Whoops, yes you did.

When I read "Cushman", I immediately had a brain fart and missed the word "NEV".

The brain fart was an immediate mental picture of the 1960's era electric 3-wheel work carts that used to run around in a plant I once worked in.

Surely there must be NEV "tuner" shops in towns where these things are common, where you take your car to get it "chipped". :D

[MetroMPG]

By the way, what is the cheapest new street-legal ICE car you can get in the US these days?

[The Toecutter]

I think the Kia Rio is. It's around $9,000. Usually, it will be marked up to over $10,000.

[MetroMPG]

It's kind of embarrassing that while we can't yet even drive an NEV in Ontario and most provinces, some US states are already pushing for revisions to their existing laws to make the vehicles more practical for the average person who might use one for sub/urban driving.

IE: raising the legislated speed restriction from 25 to 30-35 mph.

This news via the EVDL, where apparently the Seattle EV
Association was involved in the process.

The first legislative hurdle (WA state house of representatives) passed with unanimous support:

http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/ev-list-archive/message/88807

[Peakster]

I think the reason why EVs aren't taking interest in the general public is because they tend to look so 'weird'. I've heard people making fun of the smart car by calling it the 'coffin car' (I personally think the smart looks ok).

Some automaker should just shove an electric motor into a car that looks like this:

243

I bet they'd be flying off the lots, and you *know* I'd be first in line :D.

By the way MetroMPG, why would an EV be illegal to drive anyways? Priuses have electric motors and even disabled people ride their electric scooters on the roads from time to time.

[MetroMPG]

Bt the way MetroMPG, why would an EV be illegal to drive anyways? Priuses have electric motors and even disabled people ride their electric scooters on the roads from time to time.

Not all EV's are illegal to drive in Ontario. The ForkenSwift will be road legal.

NEV's are a legally defined class of vehicle, different from OEM bought or converted cars. NEV's don't meet the crash standards of OEM based EV's (like the EV1 or Toyota Rav4 EV, or a hobbyist EV conversion made on an OEM chassis), thus the legally restricted speed of 25 mph (in places where they're permitted).

[Peakster]

NEV's are a legally defined class of vehicle, different from OEM bought or converted cars. NEV's don't meet the crash standards of OEM based EV's... thus the legally restricted speed of 25 mph (in places where they're permitted).

Ah, I see now. It's a whole new breed of vehicular transportation.

[Rstb88]

We need more vehivles like the bugE, classified as a motorcylcle can go faster and thus legal on more roads. With better technology it is our solution to NEVs.

[Ryland]

My family has been looking for some sort of EV for a while now, but our town has two state highways going thru it that dubble as city streets, the university has a number of those small japanise made vans, and trucks that are alowed to drive on city streets, but only crose state highways, simaler to how ATV's and tractors are alowed on city streets, but they are banned from doing anything but crossing state highways, making it impissible to get a vehicle like that the 1.5 mile from down town to my house, NEV's would have simaler limitations, mopeds, motorcycle based vehicles, electric bicycles, and motorcycles how ever are not restriced at all.

[cfg83]

Peakster -

...

I bet they'd be flying off the lots, and you *know* I'd be first in line :D.

Bt the way MetroMPG, why would an EV be illegal to drive anyways? Priuses have electric motors and even disabled people ride their electric scooters on the roads from time to time.

What car is this? A "Ford Fiero" or something? It's most righteous.

CarloSW2

[Peakster]

245

Its a Ghia ME3000, made in the early 80s I believe (before the Fiero). Rumour has it that this car almost made it to production. The company made a whole bunch of concept city cars too, way ahead of its time.

[cfg83]

Peakster -

245

Its a Ghia ME3000, made in the early 80s I believe (before the Fiero). Rumour has it that this car almost made it to production. The company made a whole bunch of concept city cars too, way ahead of its time.

Ahhhhhhh, a Ghia. I should have known. Now I want to go trolling around on the Russian concept car website.

CarloSW2

[Lug_Nut]

Didn't they make it? That picture has a lot of cues that made me thinking it was a prototype that ended up as the Aussie-built Mercury XR-2 that we had for a few years.

[cfg83]

Lug_Nut -

Didn't they make it? That picture has a lot of cues that made me thinking it was a prototype that ended up as the Aussie-built Mercury XR-2 that we had for a few years.

*sigh*.

What you say makes sense, but what I heard was, the XR2 was the deformed progeny of the Ford Barchetta :

http://www.carstyling.ru/resources/studio/83ghia_ford_barchetta_1.jpg

Notice the "hood bumps"? On the Barchetta they were functional because that was where the shocks were. The XR2 adopted them.

Now I am thinking, maybe the XR2 was the bastard son of both of these cars.

The XR2 was a nice car on it's own terms, but just look at what it could have been!!!!!!

CarloSW2

[Rstb88]

Looks similar to the Honda Beat

[Snax]

NEVs will never be popular without the ability to travel at least 40-45 MPH. There is no major metropolitan area where even the local feeder streets would allow travel at 25 mph, rendering NEVs useless for anything more than circling the block. To get ANYWHERE in my town, we need to use a minimum of a 35 zone.

[repete86]

I've been wondering for a few days about this. How much grief to you get for owning that truck in a town like Eugene? Is it still the eco-anarchist hub that it was in the 90's, or has that changed?

[Snax]

We have all types here - including way to many rednecks that think they need a pickup just because. Then of course there was the guy who torched a lot full of SUVs and pickups. He's a complete tool by failing to realize that the majority of the public just wrote him off as a nut, and that the automakers would just make more of them to replace what he destroyed. The only people that got screwed were insurance company shareholders.

Anyway, we do have a semi-local guy with the right idea about NEVs. He's the former manufacturer of the NEVCo Gizmo that is reapproaching this niche with the BugE. It's too bad that he has to limit the vehicle to 3 wheels, but that lends itself well to lightweight design and allows the higher speeds without crash testing. (People just need to realize that they are as imperiled by stupid drivers as much as any motorcyclist when driving one.)

[repete86]

If you're talking about Jeff "Free" Luers, then I would say that the only person who got screwed was him. Twenty three years for causing $40k of damage is ridiculous. That's more than most murderers, thieves, rapists and kidnappers get. The SUV's were later refurbished and sold.

I do think that destroying the SUV's in this fashion was wrong. For starters, most of the public at that time didn't really care very much about the environment. This was before most people started believing the truth about global warming. Secondly, and more importantly, it was counterproductive because he spewed more toxic chemicals into the atmosphere than would have if he just defaced them or found a better way to render them useless. Regardless though, 23 years is just obscene for a few silly SUV's.

[Snax]

If you're talking about Jeff "Free" Luers, then I would say that the only person who got screwed was him. Twenty three years for causing $40k of damage is ridiculous. That's more than most murderers, thieves, rapists and kidnappers get. The SUV's were later refurbished and sold.
I could not agree more with that. This sentence was ridiculous excess and it's looking like he may have a reasonable chance at not serving the whole thing.

Justice might supposedly be blind, but it doesn't have to be.

I doubt all of the vehicles were refurbished though. The fire was hot enough to be melting the plastics on cars parked across the street!

Oops, I think we've digressed. ;)

[Telco]

First, I'd like to say BUMP!!!

That fellow caused more than 40K in damage, he destroyed over a dozen SUVs at an average of 40K each, damaged the car dealership they were at, most likely caused the dealership to have to shut for a while, cost the local PD and fire department money to contain the blaze and investigate, from the sounds of things damaged nearby facilities, and put a lot of lives in danger when the FD had to put things out. The cost of his little stunt most likely was in the millions of dollars. Then there is the environmental damage he did, by burning all those SUVs he pumped a lot of toxic smoke into the atmosphere, and the time, effort and environmental hit from the manufacturing process was completely wasted as nobody got use from those vehicles. Surely he didn't think the manufacturer was going to not just add a dozen more to the year's run. His jail term for his eco-terrorism is about right. And, yes, it was terrorism.

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source
ter·ror·ism /ˈtɛrəˌrɪzəm/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[ter-uh-riz-uhm] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
1. the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, esp. for political purposes.
2. the state of fear and submission produced by terrorism or terrorization.
3. a terroristic method of governing or of resisting a government.

WordNet - Cite This Source
terrorism

noun
the calculated use of violence (or the threat of violence) against civilians in order to attain goals that are political or religious or ideological in nature; this is done through intimidation or coercion or instilling fear

American Heritage Dictionary - Cite This Source
ter·ror·ism (těr'ə-rĭz'əm) Pronunciation Key
n. The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.

As you can see, his actions fit the classic definitions of terrorism. His goal was to cause people to stop selling SUVs, so this was terrorism for an ideological reason.

The better way for him to accomplish this would be to not buy SUVs, and try to convince others not to, or try to get laws passed to either make SUVs illegal or too costly to drive. The best way for that would be for the guy to run for office, then put forth bills to jack up the taxes on SUVs to astronomical levels. When the automakers approached him to get him to back off, ask for lots of money. When they pay the money, use that money to further the goal of getting SUVs off the road.

That being said, that Ford pic put me in mind of an electric conversion Fiero. Would be plenty for me to get to work and back, so long as it could maintain 70MPH. Range wouldn't be that important as I normally drive no more than 30 miles a day on workdays, so a top off every night would be easy to do. A 100 mile range with no more than a 3hr recharge would allow me to do everything I need to do 5 days a week. 80MPH with a 150 mile range, and I would only need a gasser once a month. Hell, if I could build 1 I could build 2, and then I'd only need the truck as a gasser, and use it every once in a great while when I have to go out of the local area or when I need an actual truck :D

And the only way electric cars will ever take off in this country is if they can maintain 90+MPH for at least 300 miles between fill-ups, with a means to recharge in 10 minutes. Either that, or 10 dollar a gallon gasoline.

The only way I see the 10 minute recharge happening right now, is if the battery packs were standardized and quickly removable, which would allow a person to pull into a station, and have a technician pull the depleted pack out and install a new pack, with that pack being guaranteed to last at least X amount of time. We'd also need a new way to calculate this that would be standard across all cars, like X times (Y +/- correction factor) to come up with a guaranteed mileage estimate. That guarantee would have to be something like if the battery craps out before you've gone this far, the company will send a vehicle out with a free battery pack or something. We'd also need a way to quickly determine if the mileage were cut due to travel or excessive power consumption, like a big stereo or using power accessories for a long time without moving.

[Snax]

I like the battery exchange concept. Obviously there would have to be some compatibility between various cars for this to really take off. A company marketing their own high performance electrics could strategically place exchange locations across metropolitan areas, and with a quick-fit exchange system people could presumeably be in and out more quickly than the average gas fill up. Unfortunately I don't see any of that happening until the automakers get serious about electrics, but it seems a reasonable idea for the future.